-�Steve Jost, consultant to The Census Project
Just as the Census Bureau�s career professionals are ramping up an ambitious agenda to completely modernize the conduct of the next decennial head count in 2030��– and better insulate it from problems that plagued the 2020 count, it is Congressional d�j� vu all over again on mid-decade uncertainty over funding critical to prepare for the nation�s vital census. President Biden just signed�into law�the Congressional appropriation for Fiscal Year 2024 (FY 2024) for the Bureau, at a level that represents�a cut of $103 million (7%) from the�FY 2023 funding level. That is going in the wrong direction.�
Just last year the GAO warned in a comprehensive review of Census operations about the harm to the last census caused by not funding preparations the Bureau needed to research and test to ensure a successful decennial outcome. �The 2020 Census cycle demonstrated that budgetary uncertainty can disrupt key research and testing without adequate planning. The Bureau canceled or delayed many of its planned tests and justified the decisions citing budgetary issues, such as sequestration in 2013 and continuing resolutions in fiscal year 2017.�
A formal impact assessment from the Administration should be forthcoming, but there is no doubt such severe cuts are going to at least delay, if not hamper, many�innovations and tests�important to census stakeholders and local communities, and essential for a complete and accurate 2030 count. While the Bureau was�lauded for overcoming the unique challenges wrought by the Covid-19 pandemic in the middle of the 2020 decennial, it was the first decennial in recent history that�did not improve upon the accuracy and coverage of its predecessor. More than�160 communities officially challenged their results, while many others complained of coverage errors. Our country is doomed to repeat history if the funding for FY 2025 does not seriously increase and make up for this disruption in FY 2024. As the Urban Institute�graphically�demonstrated in advance of the 2020 count, now is when the ramp-up in funding for the nation�s constitutionally mandated headcount has always begun in earnest. We cannot let 2030 be a repeat of 2020.�
We hope the Census Bureau can once again be resourceful and find a way to forge ahead with it�s planned 2026 field test, as well as the imminent implementation of a new�race and ethnicity measure, and�a new question�on sexual orientation and gender identity.��Major investments in modernizing and improving the American Community Survey (ACS) may be at risk under this dismal fiscal picture, but the Census Project encourages the Bureau to do all it can to be transparent and share with Congress the benefits from these needed investments, as well as those essential to their�enterprise transformation. The decisive year for success in 2030 is�not�at the end of the decade, it is FY 2025, when Congress will make�the critical funding decisions that will determine how well we will serve our constitutional mandate.�
