By Dr. William P. O’Hare
Standard Deviations blog posts represent the views of the author/organization, but not necessarily those of The Census Project.
Introduction
As someone who has monitored the U.S. Census Bureau since the 1970 Census, I feel the 2020 Census was somewhat of a low point in terms of strained relationships between the Census Bureau and data users, stakeholder groups, and census followers.
However, it is my belief that following the 2020 Census, there have been a number of positive developments at the Census Bureau. I cover several different Census Bureau initiatives below (in no particular order) without going into any detail about any of them. I am not sure if any of these activities by themselves are that noteworthy, but collectively, they provide evidence of increased attention to stakeholders’ concerns at the Census Bureau.
Appointment of new Census Bureau Director
On January 5, 2022, Rob Santos was sworn in as the new Census Bureau Director. Compared to the Director that preceded him, Rob Santos’ appointment is a return to having a Census Bureau Director who understands data, statistics, and census taking. Mr. Santos is a long-time census data user and a recognized expert in the area of statistics and data collection. I have heard more than one data user say, “he is one of us.”
It is refreshing to have someone in charge of the Census Bureau who understands data users’ concerns and the importance of the Census in American society. The appointment of Mr. Santos as Director was not a decision made by the Census Bureau, but I believe it is a positive decision in the context of the Census Bureau moving on from the Trump Administration and the 2020 Census.
Delay further implementation of differential privacy
During the 2020 Census, the Census Bureau implemented a new disclosure avoidance technique called Differential Privacy, or DP, as part of its Disclosure Avoidance System (DAS). It is fair to say implementation of differential privacy was very controversial. Many stakeholders felt DP was implemented without adequate testing and injected too much error in the 2020 Census results. The report on the quality of the 2020 Census from the National Academy of Sciences (2023, page 2) summarized the issue as, “In short, the new DAS was not ready for use in the 2020 Census production and substantially degraded the value of the Census data products in terms of both quality and timeliness.” Data users were awaiting (or dreading) news about how differential privacy would be implemented in the ACS and other Census products.
In December 2022, the Census Bureau announced it would not further implement DP without adequate testing. The Census Bureau (2022, page 1) stated, “Our assessment is that the science does not yet exist to comprehensively implement a formally private solution for the ACS.” The choice to delay further implementation of DP was a very welcome decision to data users and a wise move on the part of the Census Bureau.
Creation of a 2030 Census Advisory Panel
In the summer of 2023, the Census Bureau announced it would form a new advisory committee to focus on the 2030 Census. This Advisory Committee is in addition to the National Advisory Committee (NAC) and the Census Scientific Advisory Committee (CSAC) which provide input on a wide range of Census Bureau work in addition to the Decennial Census.
According to the Census Bureau (2023c, Page 1), “The 2030 Census Advisory Committee (2030 CAC) will review and provide feedback related to 2030 Census plans and execution to assist the Census Bureau to devise strategies to increase census awareness and participation, reduce barriers to response, and enhance the public’s trust and willingness to respond.”
This new panel will provide another avenue for stakeholders to get information from the Census Bureau and provide advice to the Census Bureau. The more communication channels users have with the Bureau the better.
Development of a blended base for population estimates
Following the 2020 Census, the Census Bureau implemented a new way to provide a base population for their post-census population estimates. These estimates are very important in guiding the trillions of dollars in federal funding to states and localities every year. The new method was required because the results of the 2020 Census were not available in time to serve as the base for the post-2020 census estimates. But the resulting population base developed by the Census Bureau appears to have some advantages to using the Decennial Census as a base. For one thing, the blended base largely corrects for the high net undercount of young children in the Census (O’Hare 2023).
In addition to development of the new methodology, the Bureau announced a Base Evaluation Research Team (BERT) to conduct research regarding the base population they would use for the rest of the decade. In August of 2023, the Census Bureau created an ad-hoc expert panel to provide input on the blended base approach.
The emergence of the blended-base methodology shows creativity within the Bureau and at the same time likely improves the Census Bureau estimate series. According to the Census Bureau (2023b, page 1), “Census Bureau demographers came up with a creative solution that not only enabled us to produce the estimates but also introduced new possibilities for further methodological developments.” There is no doubt in my mind that this is a positive step.
Report on how census data is used in federal funding
In Spring of 2023, the Census Bureau (2023a) issued a seminal report on how Census data are used in federal funding formulas to distribute about $2.8 trillion in Fiscal Year 2021 to states and localities. The link between Census data and dollars for states and local communities is a key consideration in trying to engage local governments and communities in census promotion and participation. The development of a new publication is extremely helpful and this report from the Census Bureau provides powerful ammunition related to census engagement. It also underscores the importance of Census data and Census accuracy in terms that are very meaningful to a wide audience. The development of this report responds to the long-term interests of data users and census stakeholders. The issuance of this report, and the promise of more similar reports to come, is incredibly important for stakeholders working to get a complete and accurate census.
Increased focus and attention to vulnerable populations
The Census Bureau recently created two new initiatives to focus on two populations that have long been undercounted in the U.S. census. The two initiatives are covered below.
Establishment of a cross-directorate team within the Census Bureau to focus on the undercount of young children
The undercount of young children in the Census has been one of the most vexing problems faced by the Census Bureau over the past several decades. The net undercount of young children is high, and it has been increasing steadily since 1980.
In the fall of 2021, the Census Bureau announced the creation of a Cross-Directorate team within the Census Bureau to focus on the count of young children. The Task Force was announced at the Census Scientific Advisory Committee meeting on September 23, 2021. The Task Force will include work to lower the net undercount of young children in the 2030 Census as well as make improvements in other Census Bureau products such as the American Community Survey.
Establishment of a unit within the Census Bureau to focus on race and ethnicity
According to the U.S. Census Bureau (2023d, page 2), “The U.S. Census Bureau has recently launched an initiative to advance research on race/ethnicity and inequality by 1) enhancing data access for researchers from underserved racial and ethnic communities and increasing engagement with these researchers, 2) improving methods and data products related to racial and ethnic inequities and measurement, and 3) building a community of practice around this work.”
The work of this unit is just getting underway but given the long-standing undercount of many racial and ethnic groups in the Census, the establishment of this group addresses concerns long voiced by data users and stakeholders.
Launching an Office of Strategic Alliances
In November 2021, the Census Bureau announced the establishment of the Office of Strategic Alliances. According to the Census Bureau (2021, page 1), “OSA aims to expand the ways to disseminate Census Bureau data to non-traditional users and collaborate with national stakeholders to increase responses to the Census Bureau’s economic and demographic censuses and surveys.”
This move by the Census Bureau was welcomed by data users and stakeholders because it offered a way to have on-going structured interaction with the Census Bureau long before the Decennial Census year. Moreover, it parallels an effort among key stakeholders’ groups to stay engaged with the Census Bureau between censuses.
Summary
In summary, the points covered above highlight a number of changes and innovations at the Census Bureau that respond to data-users and stakeholders’ concerns. The initiatives reviewed above are just a sample of what the Census Bureau has been doing over the past few years, but collectively they convey a positive direction. Compared to the low-point of relationships between data users and the Census Bureau around 2020, these changes collectively signal a more positive relationship going forward. I have not always been positive about decisions made at the Census Bureau, but the Census Bureau deserves some credit for these recent decisions.
References
National Academy of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (2023). Understanding the Quality of the 2020 Census: Final Report, Washington, DC., The National Academy Press, https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/27150/assessing-the-2020-census-final-report
O’Hare, W. P. (2023). “Does the Census Bureau’s Blended Base Correct the High Undercount of Young Children in the 2020 Census? A Look at States and Counties,” posted on the Count All Kids website https://countallkids.org/resources/does-the-census-bureaus-blended-base-correct-the-high-undercount-of-young-children-in-the-2020-census-a-look-at-states-and-counties/
U.S. Census Bureau (2021). Introducing the Office of Strategic Alliances, https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/USCENSUS/bulletins/2fac2a4
U.S. Census Bureau (2022). “Disclosure Avoidance Protections for the American Community Survey,” Donna Daily, December https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2022/12/disclosure-avoidance-protections-acs.html
U.S. Census Bureau (2023a). “A New Report Estimates the Value of Census Bureau Data in Federal Assistance, Underscores the Importance of Participation in Federal Surveys.” June https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023/decennial-census-federal-funds-distribution.html
U.S. Census Bureau (2023b). “Post-Pandemic Challenges and Opportunities for Population Estimates, June 22, Christine Hartley, Luke Rogers, and Catherine Doren, https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2023/06/blended-base-methodology.html
U. S Census Bureau (2023c) 2030 Census Advisory Committee (2030 CAC). October 17, https://www.census.gov/about/cac/2030cac.html
U.S. Census Bureau (2023d). Workshop on Advancing Research on Race, Ethnicity and Inequality, Nov 2 2023 U.S Census Bureau, Washington D.C. https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/ces/news-and-updates/updates/07122023.html
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