On February 5, 2024, the Inspector General (IG) of the U.S. Department of Commerce issued a report, “Independent Evaluation of the 2020 Decennial Census Evaluations and Experiments (EAE) Operation.” The IG contracted with an independent firm, the Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA), to produce the report.

In a memo to Census Bureau Director Santos accompanying the report, Arthur L. Scott, Jr. Assistant Inspector General for Audit and Evaluation, states that the report’s “objective was to determine whether the Census Bureau prepared adequate and timely operational assessments (OAs) that included the appropriate metrics to support planning for the 2030 decennial’s research and testing (R&T).” The report centers on six major findings regarding, among other things, the timeliness of 2020 evaluations, management practices, and processes that the agency used to examine scheduling delays.

Specifically, IDA found the following:

“I.  2020 OAs, evaluations, and experiments were not completed in time to formally inform the development of the Census Bureau’s 2030 R&T agenda.

II.  The 2020 census EAE research program failed to prioritize the evaluation of two of the four key 2020 innovation areas and the investigation of a potentially significant2030 innovation.

III.  The Census Bureau has put management processes and tools in place but does not always use them to their potential.

IV.  The Census Bureau should standardize the reporting of cost data across EAE products.

V. The Census Bureau should examine delays with respect to the originally planned schedule and not just the latest re-baselined schedule.

VI. The Census Bureau should resource-load the activities in the decennial census integrated master schedule.”

Appendix D of the report includes the Census Bureau’s December 22, 2023, response to the draft report.

Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-NC-11) introduced the Federal Parity for Communities with Above Average Seasonal Homeownership Research Act (Federal Parity for CASH Research Act) (H.R. 7196), legislation that would require a study of the impact of seasonal or non-permanent homeownership on the accuracy of census data and the distribution of federal funds.

Within a year of the bill’s passage, the Comptroller General of the United States would need to conduct a study of:

• “the effect of homeownership in communities by seasonal and non-permanent residents on the collection and accuracy of data in censuses and surveys conducted by the Bureau of the Census”; and
• “the effect such data has on distribution of Federal funding to such communities.”

The Comptroller General would be required to give a special focus in the study to “rural Appalachia communities and coastal communities.”

If the study turns up “a negative effect between levels of seasonal and non-permanent resident homeownership and Federal funding distribution, the Comptroller General” would be tasked with providing “recommendations with respect to remedying such negative effect.”

The bill has been referred to the House Oversight and Accountability Committee.

The White House says to expect President Biden’s budget proposal for Fiscal Year (FY) 2025, including funding for the U.S. Census Bureau, to be released to the public on March 11, 2024.

Although the FY 2024 appropriations process is not yet resolved – the latest Continuing Resolution (CR) funds many government programs through March 1, while the rest, including the Census Bureau, are funded through March 8 – Congress will need to quickly turn to FY 2025.

The Census Project aims to release our FY 2025 budget request this month, before the President’s proposal.

For more appropriations updates, see the January Census Project Update.

On February 22, 2024, the Urban Institute will host a discussion of how the U.S. Census Bureau has proposed to change the way the agency measures disabled Americans.

Per the organizer, “The bureau currently estimates that 14 percent of people residing in the United States (44 million people) have a disability. According to the bureau’s testing, the new measure would cut the existing estimate  to 8 percent, or 26 million people.” The proposed changes were not developed with “meaningful engagement with the disability community,” according to the Urban Institute.

Among the panelists at the event is a member of The Census Project’s Advisory Committee: Meeta Anand from the Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights.

The Census Project explored this issue in a blog post a couple of months ago.

Two new primers highlight the importance of census data, and the 2030 Census, to Florida’s fortunes.

According to Florida TaxWatch, their state was “one of only six states with a definite undercount in the 2020 decennial census, missing 3.48 percent of its population, and it is not the first time the state experienced an undercount.” A key driver? Low participation rates in Census Bureau surveys: “In 2020, only 67 percent of Floridians responded to their census survey without requiring additional prompting from the Census Bureau.”

That undercount, the group says in a new primer for legislators, “will cost Florida at least $11 billion of federal funds by the end of the decade. Under unusual circumstances, such as natural disasters or pandemics, Florida could lose up to $21 billion in federal funds.” Further, while the state gained a seat in Congressional reapportionment, “with a complete Census count, Florida [could] have gained a second.”

Narrowing down to agricultural issues in another primer, “Florida TaxWatch Census Primer: Agriculture,” Florida TaxWatch noted that, “Florida’s agricultural industry is impacted by a loss of federal funding and data limitations as a result of a census undercount. One-third of Florida farms are in rural counties, areas especially susceptible to undercounts.”

The group noted that agriculture businesses may use American Community Survey (ACS) data directly, or indirectly via insights companies that use ACS data, “to understand where to find the right workforce and customers for its operations.”

Census data is also used by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Agriculture Census “as a weighted variable.” The once-every-five-years survey illustrates “the characteristics of farms state- and nationwide, including data points such as the number of farms by size and type and the values of crops and livestock.” Census data is also used by the USDA “to plan rural development programs and food assistance programs, including the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program and the National School Lunch Program.”

Florida TaxWatch recommended that, if stakeholders want to “support the continued success of Florida’s agriculture industry, and to increase its potential to grow,” they should “consider the following as the 2030 Census approaches”: 1. “Stay up to date on census-related issues”; 2. “Encourage your employees to complete their census surveys”; 3. “Lend your voice”; and 4. “Invest in your community.”

In its legislative primer, Florida TaxWatch recommended that state legislators: “Allocate funding for Complete Count Committees (CCCs)”; “In 2027, support county and state participation in the Local Update of Census Addresses”; and “Encourage your constituents to complete their census survey and spread awareness.”

As outlined in news coverage, the group further urged “stakeholders, including agricultural businesses and community leaders, to stay informed on census issues, promote census survey completion, and invest in community efforts to support a more accurate count.”

Correction 3-21-24: An earlier version of this blog failed to describe fully the impact on apportionment of Congress of these new bills. It has been corrected and additional information provided.  We regret the error and express our appreciation to a reader who drew our attention to the issue. 

On January 25, U.S. Senator Bill Hagerty (R-TN) introduced a bill, S. 3659, The Equal Representation Act. The bill, which has 20 current Republican cosponsors, would require the decennial census to include a citizenship question beginning with the 2030 count. The bill would also exclude undocumented immigrants from the number of people used to determine apportionment in the U.S. House of Representatives. The bill was referred to the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee for further consideration.

A similar bill, HR 6942, Count Only Citizens Act, was introduced by Representative Matthew Rosendale (R-MT) on January 10. The bill, which currently has 10 cosponsors, was referred to the House Oversight and Accountability Committee. The Rosendale legislation would exclude non-citizens who are not “lawfully present” in the U.S. from the apportionment of Congress.

Update 3-21-24: Media coverage of these proposals have misstated the history of how the Census has counted everyone.  Efforts to correct the record are shared in the interest of complete historical context for this proposed legislation. The 14th Amendment to the Constitution required what had been the practice since the first census in 1790 of “..counting the whole number of persons in each State…”

The Census Project joins the federal statistical community in paying tribute to the memory of Ms. Katherine Wallman, former U.S. Chief Statistician, who passed away on January 17, 2024 at the age of 80.

Ms. Wallman, who was a founding ex-officio member of The Census Project Advisory Committee, began her career in federal statistics at the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES). From the NCES, she went on to serve in the chief statistician’s office in the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and in the U.S. Department of Commerce. From 1981 to 1992, she was the first executive director of the Council of Professional Associations on Federal Statistics (COPAFS). In 1992, she returned to federal service when she became U.S. Chief Statistician and head of the OMB Statistical and Science Policy Office, a post she held until her retirement in 2017.

In retirement, Ms. Wallman devoted her time and energy to organizations, including The Census Project, American Statistical Association, Population Association of America, Association of Public Data Users, and Council of the Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research, who shared her commitment to preserving and strengthening the federal statistical system and its data. In addition, she graciously mentored colleagues in the public, private, non-profit, and academic sectors, freely sharing her expertise with an unrivaled sense of style, grace, wit, and humor.

Census Bureau Director Robert Santos memorialized Katherine in a blog post. The American Statistical Association, where Katherine served as president in 1992, posted a tribute from the National Academy of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Committee on National Statistics. 

The Census Project mourns her passing, but is grateful for the many contributions she made to the census stakeholder community.

By Dr. William P. O’Hare

Standard Deviations blog posts represent the views of the author/organization, but not necessarily those of The Census Project.

Introduction

As someone who has monitored the U.S. Census Bureau since the 1970 Census, I feel the 2020 Census was somewhat of a low point in terms of strained relationships between the Census Bureau and data users, stakeholder groups, and census followers.

However, it is my belief that following the 2020 Census, there have been a number of positive developments at the Census Bureau. I cover several different Census Bureau initiatives below (in no particular order) without going into any detail about any of them. I am not sure if any of these activities by themselves are that noteworthy, but collectively, they provide evidence of increased attention to stakeholders’ concerns at the Census Bureau.

Appointment of new Census Bureau Director

On January 5, 2022, Rob Santos was sworn in as the new Census Bureau Director. Compared to the Director that preceded him, Rob Santos’ appointment is a return to having a Census Bureau Director who understands data, statistics, and census taking. Mr. Santos is a long-time census data user and a recognized expert in the area of statistics and data collection. I have heard more than one data user say, “he is one of us.”

It is refreshing to have someone in charge of the Census Bureau who understands data users’ concerns and the importance of the Census in American society. The appointment of Mr. Santos as Director was not a decision made by the Census Bureau, but I believe it is a positive decision in the context of the Census Bureau moving on from the Trump Administration and the 2020 Census.

Delay further implementation of differential privacy

During the 2020 Census, the Census Bureau implemented a new disclosure avoidance technique called Differential Privacy, or DP, as part of its Disclosure Avoidance System (DAS). It is fair to say implementation of differential privacy was very controversial. Many stakeholders felt DP was implemented without adequate testing and injected too much error in the 2020 Census results. The report on the quality of the 2020 Census from the National Academy of Sciences (2023, page 2) summarized the issue as, “In short, the new DAS was not ready for use in the 2020 Census production and substantially degraded the value of the Census data products in terms of both quality and timeliness.” Data users were awaiting (or dreading) news about how differential privacy would be implemented in the ACS and other Census products.

In December 2022, the Census Bureau announced it would not further implement DP without adequate testing. The Census Bureau (2022, page 1) stated, “Our assessment is that the science does not yet exist to comprehensively implement a formally private solution for the ACS.” The choice to delay further implementation of DP was a very welcome decision to data users and a wise move on the part of the Census Bureau.

Creation of a 2030 Census Advisory Panel

In the summer of 2023, the Census Bureau announced it would form a new advisory committee to focus on the 2030 Census. This Advisory Committee is in addition to the National Advisory Committee (NAC) and the Census Scientific Advisory Committee (CSAC) which provide input on a wide range of Census Bureau work in addition to the Decennial Census.

According to the Census Bureau (2023c, Page 1), “The 2030 Census Advisory Committee (2030 CAC) will review and provide feedback related to 2030 Census plans and execution to assist the Census Bureau to devise strategies to increase census awareness and participation, reduce barriers to response, and enhance the public’s trust and willingness to respond.”

This new panel will provide another avenue for stakeholders to get information from the Census Bureau and provide advice to the Census Bureau. The more communication channels users have with the Bureau the better.

Development of a blended base for population estimates

Following the 2020 Census, the Census Bureau implemented a new way to provide a base population for their post-census population estimates. These estimates are very important in guiding the trillions of dollars in federal funding to states and localities every year. The new method was required because the results of the 2020 Census were not available in time to serve as the base for the post-2020 census estimates. But the resulting population base developed by the Census Bureau appears to have some advantages to using the Decennial Census as a base. For one thing, the blended base largely corrects for the high net undercount of young children in the Census (O’Hare 2023).

In addition to development of the new methodology, the Bureau announced a Base Evaluation Research Team (BERT) to conduct research regarding the base population they would use for the rest of the decade. In August of 2023, the Census Bureau created an ad-hoc expert panel to provide input on the blended base approach.  

The emergence of the blended-base methodology shows creativity within the Bureau and at the same time likely improves the Census Bureau estimate series. According to the Census Bureau (2023b, page 1), “Census Bureau demographers came up with a creative solution that not only enabled us to produce the estimates but also introduced new possibilities for further methodological developments.” There is no doubt in my mind that this is a positive step.

Report on how census data is used in federal funding

In Spring of 2023, the Census Bureau (2023a) issued a seminal report on how Census data are used in federal funding formulas to distribute about $2.8 trillion in Fiscal Year 2021 to states and localities. The link between Census data and dollars for states and local communities is a key consideration in trying to engage local governments and communities in census promotion and participation. The development of a new publication is extremely helpful and this report from the Census Bureau provides powerful ammunition related to census engagement. It also underscores the importance of Census data and Census accuracy in terms that are very meaningful to a wide audience. The development of this report responds to the long-term interests of data users and census stakeholders. The issuance of this report, and the promise of more similar reports to come, is incredibly important for stakeholders working to get a complete and accurate census.

Increased focus and attention to vulnerable populations

The Census Bureau recently created two new initiatives to focus on two populations that have long been undercounted in the U.S. census. The two initiatives are covered below.

Establishment of a cross-directorate team within the Census Bureau to focus on the undercount of young children

The undercount of young children in the Census has been one of the most vexing problems faced by the Census Bureau over the past several decades. The net undercount of young children is high, and it has been increasing steadily since 1980.

In the fall of 2021, the Census Bureau announced the creation of a Cross-Directorate team within the Census Bureau to focus on the count of young children. The Task Force was announced at the Census Scientific Advisory Committee meeting on September 23, 2021. The Task Force will include work to lower the net undercount of young children in the 2030 Census as well as make improvements in other Census Bureau products such as the American Community Survey.

Establishment of a unit within the Census Bureau to focus on race and ethnicity

According to the U.S. Census Bureau (2023d, page 2), “The U.S. Census Bureau has recently launched an initiative to advance research on race/ethnicity and inequality by 1) enhancing data access for researchers from underserved racial and ethnic communities and increasing engagement with these researchers, 2) improving methods and data products related to racial and ethnic inequities and measurement, and 3) building a community of practice around this work.”

The work of this unit is just getting underway but given the long-standing undercount of many racial and ethnic groups in the Census, the establishment of this group addresses concerns long voiced by data users and stakeholders.

Launching an Office of Strategic Alliances

In November 2021, the Census Bureau announced the establishment of the Office of Strategic Alliances. According to the Census Bureau (2021, page 1), “OSA aims to expand the ways to disseminate Census Bureau data to non-traditional users and collaborate with national stakeholders to increase responses to the Census Bureau’s economic and demographic censuses and surveys.”

This move by the Census Bureau was welcomed by data users and stakeholders because it offered a way to have on-going structured interaction with the Census Bureau long before the Decennial Census year. Moreover, it parallels an effort among key stakeholders’ groups to stay engaged with the Census Bureau between censuses.  

Summary

In summary, the points covered above highlight a number of changes and innovations at the Census Bureau that respond to data-users and stakeholders’ concerns. The initiatives reviewed above are just a sample of what the Census Bureau has been doing over the past few years, but collectively they convey a positive direction. Compared to the low-point of relationships between data users and the Census Bureau around 2020, these changes collectively signal a more positive relationship going forward. I have not always been positive about decisions made at the Census Bureau, but the Census Bureau deserves some credit for these recent decisions.

References

National Academy of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (2023). Understanding the Quality of the 2020 Census: Final Report, Washington, DC., The National Academy Press, https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/27150/assessing-the-2020-census-final-report

O’Hare, W. P. (2023). “Does the Census Bureau’s Blended Base Correct the High Undercount of Young Children in the 2020 Census? A Look at States and Counties,” posted on the Count All Kids website https://countallkids.org/resources/does-the-census-bureaus-blended-base-correct-the-high-undercount-of-young-children-in-the-2020-census-a-look-at-states-and-counties/

U.S. Census Bureau (2021). Introducing the Office of Strategic Alliances, https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/USCENSUS/bulletins/2fac2a4

U.S. Census Bureau (2022). “Disclosure Avoidance Protections for the American Community Survey,” Donna Daily, December https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2022/12/disclosure-avoidance-protections-acs.html

U.S. Census Bureau (2023a). “A New Report Estimates the Value of Census Bureau Data in Federal Assistance, Underscores the Importance of Participation in Federal Surveys.” June https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023/decennial-census-federal-funds-distribution.html

U.S. Census Bureau (2023b). “Post-Pandemic Challenges and Opportunities for Population Estimates, June 22, Christine Hartley, Luke Rogers, and Catherine Doren, https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2023/06/blended-base-methodology.html

U. S Census Bureau (2023c) 2030 Census Advisory Committee (2030 CAC). October 17, https://www.census.gov/about/cac/2030cac.html

U.S. Census Bureau (2023d). Workshop on Advancing Research on Race, Ethnicity and Inequality, Nov 2 2023 U.S Census Bureau, Washington D.C. https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/ces/news-and-updates/updates/07122023.html

On January, 18, 2024, the U.S. House and Senate passed a Continuing Resolution (CR) to fund the government, which the President is expected to sign into law. As a result, the Census Bureau will continue to be funded at its Fiscal Year (FY) 2023 level through early March.

The CR continues with staggered deadlines of March 1 and March 8 for funding all Federal agencies (the prior deadlines were January 19 and February 2). The Commerce, Justice, Science (CJS) appropriations bill, which funds the U.S. Census Bureau, will run out on the second deadline, March 8.

That gives census stakeholders more time to advocate for as much funding as possible in any final FY 2024 funding deal, which would hopefully be completed before March 8.

Census Project stakeholders sent a letter to the Chairs and Ranking Members of the House and Senate CJS Appropriations Subcommittees urging that they provide the Census Bureau with the highest possible level of funding in FY 2024. The letter also asked them to oppose the inclusion of any proposals in the final measure that would use the Census Bureau as a funding offset.

The Census Project will keep stakeholders updated on progress on the FY 2024 CJS bill.

The U.S. Census Bureau is seeking new nominations for the Census Scientific Advisory Committee (CSAC) who “have scientific and technical expertise in such areas as communications, demographic, economic, field operations, geography, information technology, and statistics. Such knowledge and expertise are needed to provide advice and recommendations to the Director of the Census Bureau on the trends, uses, and application of scientific innovations and developments in relation to the full range of Census Bureau programs and activities.”

The Bureau is particularly “interested in receiving applications from persons with expertise in survey methodology, information technology, computer science and engineering, geography, psychology, business/finance, sociology, and marketing.”

Nominations are due by February 2, 2024.