Appropriations Update
In its closing days of the 118th Congress, the U.S. House of Representatives and U.S. Senate voted to send President Biden a continuing resolution (CR) to keep the Federal government operational through March 14, 2025. In addition to extending funding for the government, the bill, the American Relief Act (H.R. 10545), provides about $100 billion in Federal disaster aid. President Biden signed the bill into law on December 21, 2024.
With respect to the U.S. Census Bureau, as covered in a blog from The Census Project, the bill continues funding for the agency at its Fiscal Year 2024 funding level. The Bureau has not publicly released details yet regarding the consequences of this temporary funding extension.
The 119th Congress convenes on January 3, 2025. One of its early priorities will be to resolve the Fiscal Year 2025 appropriations process before the current CR expires in mid-March.
Policy Update
House Hearing on 2020 Census Results with Census Director Santos
On Thursday, December 5, 2024, the House Committee on Oversight and Accountability held a hearing on “Oversight of the U.S. Census Bureau,” with Census Director Robert L. Santos as the lone witness. A full video of the hearing can be viewed on the Committee’s website, which is provided in the above link.
Led by Chairman Comer’s opening statement, much of the hearing focused on the Census Bureau’s report card of the accuracy of the 2020 count, compiled through their Post Enumeration Survey (PES) which in a sense is a smaller sample survey much like the Census to compare and contrast findings in the two surveys. Much of the question-and-answer portion of the hearing focused on the PES findings of state overcounts and undercounts, and why more “Republican led” states had undercounts, while more of the states with overcounts were “Democrat states.”
Ranking Member Raskin, in his opening statement, provided a fuller context of the conduct of the 2020 head count, including the unprecedented challenges it faced in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic, as well as weather and wildfire events that disproportionately impacted individual states. The PES was released in May of this year, and various press accounts at that time provided a broad range of causes behind the why some states had overcounts and others had undercounts, which has been true in every Census since the Bureau has provided a PES-like report card after the fact. The Census Project, for instance, previously posted a blog about a deep dive into the undercount of Texas.
For his part, Director Santos in his written testimony and during the question-and-answer phase of the hearing, provided a detailed summary of 2020 challenges and shortcomings and the remedies the Bureau was researching to address these and improve the 2030 census. He also addressed the current, comprehensive modernization of internal business practices at the Bureau intended to not only improve data quality but also expand the use of Administrative Records and other means to more efficiently collect data and create improved statistical products.
During the hearing, there was some conflation of the mathematical apportionment process, and suggestions of political bias in the 2020 process during the Trump Administration that oversaw the 2020 Decennial. For the benefit of our readers, we refer to the Census Bureau’s website for this video, The Amazing Apportionment Machine, which illustrates how “Method of Equal Proportions,” a math formula, drives the process.
Implications of Census Undercounts for Texas
The Texas Census Institute recently shared research into the implications of the 2020 Census undercount in Texas. The state, the first study said, “incurred a significant financial loss due to the 2020 Census undercount, resulting in a staggering $25.1B loss over the decade after the 2020 Census.” The second study concluded that, “Texas will not receive an estimated $25.1 billion in federal funds during this decade due to the 1.92% undercount.” Both of the analyses from the Texas Census Institute recommended “initiatives to improve Census data quality,” engage stakeholders and conduct further research and analysis to address the implications of the undercount.
Federal Register Notices Seeking Public Comments
- A new Federal Register Notice from the U.S. Census Bureau seeks comment from Tribal, State, county, and local governments, and organizations and other Federal agencies, by January 3, 2025 on data collection for the Spatial, Address, and Imagery Data (SAID) Program, “one of many voluntary geographic partnership programs that collects data to update and maintain the U.S. Census Bureau’s geographic database, known as the Master Address File/Topologically Integrated Geographic Encoding and Referencing (MAF/TIGER) System. The MAF/TIGER System is vital for the Census Bureau to collect, process, tabulate, and disseminate data.”
- A notice in the Federal Register is seeking comment on the Census Bureau’s hiring application process for the decennial census by February 10, 2025.
- The U.S. Census Bureau is seeking public comments on the Household Trends and Outlook Pulse Survey (HTOPS) by January 8, 2025. OMB cleared Phased 4.2 of the Household Pulse Survey on July 22, 2024, and the 10th, 11th, and 12th Census Household Panel topical operations on July 12.
- Public comments are due by December 26, 2024 on a “generic clearance” request for the U.S. Census Bureau’s field test and evaluations in preparation for the 2030 Census, in hopes of improving “efficiency, data quality, and response rates” and reducing future burden on respondents.
- The U.S. Census Bureau is planning to field a “Military Panel” at the end of January 2025. Comments on this Federal Register Notice are due by January 15, 2025.
- The U.S. Census Bureau is seeking public comments on proposed revisions to the Business Trends and Outlook Survey (BTOS) by February 18, 2025.
- The Census Bureau seeks to renew clearance for “the School Enrollment Supplement to be conducted in conjunction with the October Current Population Survey (CPS). The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) sponsor the basic annual school enrollment questions, which have been collected annually in the CPS for over 50 years. Comments are due by February 24, 2025.
Five New Members Added Each to Census Scientific Advisory Committee and National Advisory Committee
The U.S. Census Bureau appointed five new members to its Census Scientific Advisory Committee (CSAC), which provides advice and recommendations on the design and implementation of Bureau programs and surveys.
The new CSAC members are:
- Kristine J. Ajrouch, research professor, Research Center for Group Dynamics at the Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan.
- Sara Curran, professor, International Studies, and professor of Sociology and professor of Public Policy & Governance at the University of Washington.
- Andrew J. Houtenville, professor of Economics and director of the Institute on Disability at the University of New Hampshire.
- Bonnielin K. Swenor, endowed professor of Disability Health and Justice, and director of the Johns Hopkins Disability Health Research Center, Johns Hopkins.
- Jonathan Ullman, associate professor, the Khoury College of Computer Sciences at Northeastern University.
The U.S. Census Bureau also announced the appointment of five new members to its National Advisory Committee (NAC), which considers topics such as hard-to-reach populations, race and ethnicity, language, aging populations, American Indian and Alaska Native tribal considerations, new immigrant populations, populations affected by natural disasters, highly mobile and migrant populations, complex households, rural populations, and population segments with limited access to technology. The NAC also advises on data privacy and confidentiality, among other issues.
The new NAC members are:
- Stacey Carless, executive director, North Carolina Counts Coalition
- Alexis Piquero, professor and chair, Department of Sociology and Criminology and Arts & Sciences Distinguished Professor, University of Miami
- Coda Rayo-Garza, director of Research and Data, Every Texan
- Celia Stall-Meadows, Tribal citizen, Choctaw Nation of Oklahoma
- Toby Wong, principal managing director, Toby Wong Consulting
New members for each committee serve three-year terms.
Impact of Latest Population Estimates on 2030 Reapportionment
A new report from Election Data Services, using the latest population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau, projects net changes in Congressional reapportionment following the 2030 Census.
“The 2024 population estimates find that nine states would change their number of members if the apportionment were held today using the 2024 estimates. Texas and Florida would each gain two congressional seats while single seat gains would occur in Arizona and Idaho. Single seat losses would occur in Illinois, Minnesota, New York, and Oregon while California would see a loss of two seats today.”
Census Bureau News
Director Rob Santos considered the Bureau’s “work and how our success lies in the ability to put relevant and useful data into the hands of the public.”
In a Random Samplings blog, Bureau staff explain how the Census Bureau “improved our methodology to better capture the recent fluctuations in net international migration.”
Another Random Samplings blog covers the new phase of “2030 Census planning, the Development and Integration Phase, which began October 1, 2024. With the new phase underway, this blog recaps what our research agenda encompassed, what we’ve learned so far and how we’ll incorporate recommendations stemming from the research projects in the program’s next steps, including as inputs into the first baseline of the 2030 Census Operational Plan.”
“The Census Bureau recently released new guidance on how to cite its statistical products, technical documentation and research through the citation of publications, data, code and tools.” A new Research Matters blog “provides a brief overview of the guidance and shares a new data.census.gov feature designed to make citing Census Bureau data even easier.”
Another new Research Matters blog asks if AI use is increasing among small businesses.
U.S. Census Bureau economists and social scientists are set to present their research findings at the annual meeting of the American Economic Association (AEA) and Allied Social Science Associations (ASSA) in San Francisco Jan. 3-5. This conference typically hosts thousands of attendees from around the world and showcases the latest economic research.
Census Bureau Director Rob Santos blogged about the Bureau’s continuous engagement priority: “over the past three years I – accompanied by Census Bureau staff – have completed more than 170 community engagement trips across 30 states, plus Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico. While on these travels, I’ve conducted over 550 community conversations with the public. Efforts like this year’s convening on disability measurement, our historic agreement with the Osage nation, and our implementation of Statistical Policy Directive 15 – which I’ve written about previously – are also important milestones towards that goal.”
Census Bureau Data Releases
As the nation prepares to ring in the new year, the U.S. Census Bureau projected the U.S. population will reach 341,145,670 at midnight EST, on Jan. 1, 2025. This represents an increase of 2,640,171 (0.78%) from Jan. 1, 2024, and 9,696,329 (2.93%) from Census Day (April 1) 2020.
The U.S. population grew by nearly 1.0% between 2023 and 2024, according to the new Vintage 2024 population estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The U.S. Census Bureau released statistics on businesses with paid employees for Puerto Rico from the 2022 Economic Census of Island Areas.
The U.S. Census Bureau released new estimates on the characteristics of employer businesses. According to the 2023 Annual Business Survey (ABS), which covers reference year 2022, there were approximately 5.9 million U.S. employer firms, of which 1.3 million (22.6%) were minority-owned; 273,542 (4.7%) were veteran-owned; and around 1.3 million (22.3%) were owned by women. This release also includes demographic data by urban and rural classification, employment size, receipt size, and the years in business of each firm.
The U.S. Census Bureau released new data products from the Business Trends and Outlook Survey (BTOS), a survey that measures business conditions and projections on an ongoing basis, on December 5 and December 19.
The median estimated poverty rate of children ages 5 to 17 in U.S. school districts in 2023 was 13.4%, according to data released by the U.S. Census Bureau. The new data come from the 2023 Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE), which provide the only single-year income and poverty statistics for the nation’s 3,143 counties and 13,137 school districts.
The U.S. Census Bureau released the 2022 Nonemployer Statistics (NES). Nonemployer Statistics is a data product released annually that provides subnational economic data for businesses that have no paid employees, are subject to federal income tax, and have receipts of $1,000 or more ($1 or more for the Construction sector).
The number of owner-occupied housing units increased by 8.4%, from 76.4 million in 2014-2018 to 82.9 million in 2019-2023, according to newly released U.S. Census Bureau data. The 2019-2023 American Community Survey (ACS) 5-year estimates show that more people owned homes than rented in 3,070 of the nation’s 3,144 counties and county equivalents between 2019 and 2023.
The U.S. Census Bureau released new Business Formation Statistics (BFS) for November 2024. The BFS provide timely and high frequency information on new business applications and formations in the United States. The BFS are a standard data product of the Census Bureau, developed in research collaboration with economists affiliated with the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, the University of Maryland, and the University of Notre Dame.
The U.S. Census Bureau released new geographic mobility and migration estimates for the nation and regions in 2023. The release also includes updates to historical tables and graphs. These new statistics come from the 2023 Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (CPS ASEC).
The U.S. Census Bureau released new national, state and local economic data from the 2022 Economic Census, a primary source of information about the U.S. economy. The Geographic Area Statistics provide detailed industry statistics by geographic area, including states, metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas, counties, and places for employer businesses (those with paid employees) in the United States. Data include the number of firms, establishments, employees, sales, and annual and first quarter payroll.
The U.S. Census Bureau released the 2020 Census 119th Congressional District Summary File. The file updates tables previously released as part of the 2020 Census Demographic and Housing Characteristics File to reflect the 119th congressional districts and 2024 state legislative districts in effect for the November 2024 elections.
News You Can Use
Below are several articles posted on The Census Project home page in December 2024. For a complete listing, go to: In the Media
Editorial: Migration keeps WV population relatively stable
Herald-Dispatch
December 28, 2024
Still Room at the Inn
Unleash Prosperity
December 20, 2024
Southern boom fueled fastest U.S. growth in decades, new Census estimates show
AL.com
December 19, 2024
Nebraska’s biggest gain in three decades boosts population over 2 million mark
Omaha World-Herald
December 19, 2024
The US Census Bureau is adding refugees to its immigrant count
Associated Press
December 16, 2024
Then and now: Census Bureau readies release of American Community Survey
Nextgov/FCW
December 12, 2024
Freeing People From the Left Starts With the U.S. Census
The Heritage Foundation
December 12, 2024
Market-Moving Data Under Threat as Trump Returns to Washington
Bloomberg
December 11, 2024
What’s America’s largest ethnic group, and why did we get it wrong for so long?
The Washington Post
December 6, 2024
Census Bureau director: Citizenship question in 2030 would ‘dampen participation’
Washington Examiner
December 5, 2024
It’s Time for the Government to Abolish ‘Race’
The Free Press
December 3, 2024
The Multiracial Complication: The 2020 Census and the Fictitious Multiracial Boom
Sociological Science
December 3, 2024
