By Allison Plyer and Cara Brumfield, co-Chairs of the Census Quality Reinforcement task force
Standard Deviations blog posts represent the views of the author/organization, but not necessarily those of The Census Project.
A provision passed by the House appropriations committee threatens America’s census and fundamental economic statistics like the monthly unemployment rate. Section 605, which passed the U.S. House Appropriations Committee on September 10, 2025, would limit the Census Bureau’s ability to conduct thorough surveys, and potentially leave two-thirds of the country uncounted.
Section 605 states: “None of the funds in this Act may be used to enforce involuntary compliance, or to inquire more than twice for voluntary compliance with any survey conducted by the Bureau of the Census.” Making the census voluntary could dramatically reduce response rates. Additionally, constraining the Census Bureau’s ability to do outreach would further suppress participation. Together, these changes would significantly undermine data quality, leading to inaccurate population counts and flawed demographic insights that are critical for policymaking, resource allocation, and representation.
After the first 2 contacts, the 2020 Census had counted only 28% of U.S. households. In Alaska, Hawaii, Maine, Montana, New Mexico, New York, Texas, Vermont, West Virginia, and Wyoming less than 25% of households were counted in the 2020 Census after only 2 contacts. At a moment when much of America was staying home, no state had achieved even 35% coverage. Section 605 would cut off non-response follow-up operations. No American census since U.S. marshals went out on horseback in 1790 has missed two-thirds of the population.
The American Community Survey and Current Population Survey — which produces the unemployment rate — typically require 2.5 to 3 follow-up contacts to achieve reliable response rates. Other business, economic, and demographic surveys depend on multiple follow-up contact strategies to reach representative samples.
Business Impact and Economic Consequences
American businesses, investors and policymakers at the Federal Reserve rely extensively on Census Bureau data for investment and policy decisions. Companies use this information to identify potential customers, understand market demographics, plan economic development initiatives, and make investment decisions worth billions of dollars annually.
When population counts become systematically incomplete due to insufficient contact attempts, businesses operate with fundamentally flawed information. Retail chains analyzing market potential would work with data that undercounts entire communities. Healthcare systems projecting service needs would base facility planning on incomplete demographic information. Financial institutions would assess market opportunities using inaccurate population estimates.
The economic development implications are particularly significant. Federal and state agencies use census data to attract business investment and promote regional growth. When areas are dramatically undercounted, they become less visible to potential investors, creating a cycle where communities receive reduced private sector attention because their economic potential isn’t properly estimated.
Market data at risk
The Census Bureau produces economic indicators that influence financial markets both domestically and internationally. Monthly retail sales figures, housing data, manufacturing statistics, and employment numbers all depend on survey methodologies that require multiple contact attempts to achieve statistical reliability.
Section 605 would compromise these market-moving statistics by limiting the Census Bureau’s ability to conduct thorough follow-up with businesses, retailers, wholesalers, and manufacturers. When economic indicators become less reliable, market confidence decreases and business planning becomes more difficult. Gold-standard statistics help U.S. capital markets allocate investment.
Broader effects
The impact would extend beyond direct Census Bureau operations. Every survey and research study conducted across the country depends on population benchmarks established by the decennial census and demographic estimates from the American Community Survey. When these foundational datasets become unreliable, health and social statistics become unreliable.
Market research firms, academic institutions, and government agencies calibrate their studies using census data as baseline population measures. Section 605 would introduce systematic errors into this ecosystem of data collection and analysis, undermining evidence-based decision-making across multiple sectors.
Impact on rural areas
Rural areas and small population groups would face particularly severe consequences under Section 605. These communities historically require multiple follow-up efforts to achieve adequate response rates due to practical challenges including seasonal work patterns, limited internet access, and geographic isolation.
When rural areas are systematically undercounted, they lose political representation and federal funding proportional to their undercount. This creates compounding disadvantages where areas needing federal investment receive proportionally less support due to inadequate population documentation.
The economic case for good statistics
The cost of thorough census operations represents a high-return investment for the federal government. Accurate data collection enables more efficient business decision-making, better government resource allocation, and more informed public policy. The economic value generated by reliable demographic and economic statistics far exceeds the operational costs of comprehensive survey methodologies. In fact, this high-quality, freely available data gives the U.S. a significant advantage over many countries that lack similar statistical systems.
Incomplete data leads to misallocated private investment, inefficient government spending, and suboptimal policy decisions that ultimately cost far more than comprehensive data collection efforts.
Moving forward
As Congress and the Administration move to finalize the budget for the year beginning October 1, they face a critical decision about America’s information infrastructure. If not removed, Section 605 will cause significant damage to the Census Bureau’s gold-standard data that American businesses need for sound investment decisions, communities deserve for accurate representation, and the nation depends on for economic competitiveness.
