A recent report from the Government Accountability Office (GAO) looked at the Census Bureau’s Population Estimates Program (PEP), which “annually disseminates population and housing unit estimates” in-between decennial censuses, and the Population Estimates Challenge Program (PECP), which “provides state and local governments the ability to challenge annual population estimates.”
The report looked at (1) “changes that were made to the PEP and the PECP following the release of 2020 Census data, as well as other changes being considered,” and (2) “the first set of PECP results that were released in February 2024.”
The PEP estimates “are used by state, local, and tribal governments (governmental units) to allocate federal funds, among other purposes. Following the 2020 Census, the Bureau modified its methodology for developing estimates, in part, because of challenges created by the pandemic. Historically, the base for the annual population estimate was the latest decennial census. The Bureau is now using a ‘blended’ population base that, in addition to 2020 Census data, relies on other sources of data, such as demographic analysis (DA). DA estimates are developed from current and historical vital records and other sources. DA estimates are independent from the 2020 Census.”
As part of the PECP, for population estimates from April 1, 2020, through July 1, 2022, “governmental units submitted 12 challenges, according to the Bureau. The Bureau revised population estimates in response to seven of those challenges made through the PECP. Bureau officials told us that of those seven challenges, all localities saw their population change in the direction they expected. Five saw their populations increase and two saw their populations decrease. The other five challenges submitted, that were not accepted, either did not meet Bureau requirements or the locality withdrew the challenge. For example, feedback was given to two of the counties that did not meet Bureau requirements. In both cases the Bureau received a revised submission, but the counties still did not meet the Bureau’s guidelines.”
- Population Estimates: Results of the Census Bureau’s Challenge Program. GAO-25-107503. Nov 07, 2024.
