According to a report from the Texas Census Institute, “U.S. Census Bureau estimates suggest the 2020 Census undercounted 547,968 Texans. While these state-level numbers are informative, little is known of how this undercount is distributed across its counties. To inform this issue,” the Institute estimated “the 2020 county-level net undercount in Texas counties” and studied “its spatial distribution using data from the 2020 Census and the Texas Demographic Center 2020 Population Projections.” The study built “on the work of Eric Jensen and Sandra Johnson and their use of demographic benchmarks to assess the 2020 Census by developing a projections benchmark to assess the 2020 Census at the county level.”
The study concluded that, “In identifying potential drivers of the net undercount when it is positive or negative across counties, we found that a negative net undercount is correlated to counties’ self-response rate in the 2020 census. In particular, a 1% increase in the Self-Response Rate is associated with a 0.34% higher net undercount. This, in practical terms, suggests that a 1% increase in the Self-Response Rate is related to a 0.34% lower undercounting. It is critical to point out that, when considering the size of the counties, this relationship is stronger in counties with 30k people or less than in those with 30K+.”
Texas Undercount – A Deep-Dive
According to a report from the Texas Census Institute, “U.S. Census Bureau estimates suggest the 2020 Census undercounted 547,968 Texans. While these state-level numbers are informative, little is known of how this undercount is distributed across its counties. To inform this issue,” the Institute estimated “the 2020 county-level net undercount in Texas counties” and studied “its spatial distribution using data from the 2020 Census and the Texas Demographic Center 2020 Population Projections.” The study built “on the work of Eric Jensen and Sandra Johnson and their use of demographic benchmarks to assess the 2020 Census by developing a projections benchmark to assess the 2020 Census at the county level.”
The study concluded that, “In identifying potential drivers of the net undercount when it is positive or negative across counties, we found that a negative net undercount is correlated to counties’ self-response rate in the 2020 census. In particular, a 1% increase in the Self-Response Rate is associated with a 0.34% higher net undercount. This, in practical terms, suggests that a 1% increase in the Self-Response Rate is related to a 0.34% lower undercounting. It is critical to point out that, when considering the size of the counties, this relationship is stronger in counties with 30k people or less than in those with 30K+.”
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