New Technical Report Estimates Impact of Different Deadlines for the 2020 Census

A new technical report from the American Statistical Association investigated “the consequences of extending” the 2020 Census’ “data-collection deadline to October 31st or later so that the Bureau has additional time to follow up with non-responding households and engage in other post-processing operations.” Their research focused on the impact of a later deadline on Congressional apportionment and the distribution of federal Medicaid funding and found “significant consequences to an early cessation of data collection operations.”

Estimates from the report suggested that, under the shortened September 30 deadline for census counting operations:

  • “California, Ohio, or Idaho could gain seats in the House of Representatives, while Florida or Montana could lose seats (that they might not have under an October 31st deadline)”; and
  • “Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina could collectively forfeit as much as five hundred million dollars in federal Medicaid funding each year under a September 30th deadline (that they would receive under an October 31st deadline).”

“What would happen if the deadline for the 2020 Census data collection operation changed? Estimates of apportionment of the House of Representatives and distribution of federal Medicaid funding under different deadlines.” By Jonathan Auerbach and Steve Pierson. September 17, 2020.