Impact of a 2020 Census Hispanic Undercount on Child and Family Assistance Programs

A new research brief from Child Trends explores “the potential reduction in funding to states for five critical federal programs that could result from an undercount of Hispanics in the 2020 Census.” It includes interactive maps and data tables to “illustrate low, medium, and high estimates of potential losses of federal funding to states for five programs: the Medical Assistance Program (Medicaid, children only), the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), Title IV-E Foster Care, Title IV-E Adoption Assistance, and the Child Care and Development Block Grant (CCDBG).”

Key findings from the Child Trends analysis include that Texas, Florida, Arizona, Illinois, Pennsylvania and Colorado are estimated to “lose the most in annual federal funding as a result of a Hispanic undercount.” Meanwhile, “the median annual loss of federal funds” across the country would be “about $5 million in the low-range scenario and about $20 million in the high-range scenario. For many states, the loss in federal funding will be considerably greater.”

“Hispanic children are particularly at risk for being undercounted, and accounted for more than 36 percent (a disproportionate share) of the 2010 total net undercount of all children under age 5.”

childtrends graphic

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